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OIL PEAK
WITHIN 2 YEARS!
Say Leading Energy Analysts
Who Foretold Enron's Demise
by Robert Bryce
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u cant understand the world without innerstanding yourself
UP! EMERGENCY!
OIL PEAK UPDATE// march 31, 2005
la- la- la- lap-toppling da system!
u cant innerstand yourself without understanding the world
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Four years ago, the analysts at John S. Herold Inc. were the first to call bullshit on Enron. On Feb. 21, 2001, three Herold analysts issued a report that said Enron's profit margins were shriveling, the company had too few hard assets, and its stock price was way too high.
Within ten months, Enron filed for bankruptcy.
Today, the analysts at Herold -- a research-only firm that issues valuations on several hundred publicly traded energy companies -- are making predictions even bolder than their call on Enron.
Theyve been estimating when each of the world's biggest energy companies will peak in its ability to produce oil and gas. And their work shows that the best minds in the energy industry are accepting the reality that the globe is reaching (or has already reached) the limit of its own ability to produce ever increasing amounts of oil.
Many analysts have estimated when the earth will reach its peak oil production. Others have done estimates on when individual countries will hit their peaks. Herold is the first Wall Street firm to predict when specific energy companies will hit their peaks.
WHEN COMPANIES WILL HIT THEIR PEAKS
2007 - Total S.A., the French oil company, will reach its peak production.
Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., BP, Royal Dutch/Shell, and 2008 - Eni S.p.A., the Italian producer, will hit their peaks.
2009 - ChevronTexaco Corp. will peak.
The world's 7 largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months.
Executive vice president Richard Gordon, who heads Herold's global strategies team, says the firm's goal in doing peak-production estimates for individual oil companies is simple: "If the dinosaurs are going extinct, we are trying to figure out which ones are going to go extinct the soonest."
Herold's projections have enormous ramifications both for stockholders in the major oil companies and for every energy consumer on the globe. If Herold is correct, and the world's biggest oil companies cannot increase their production in the coming years, then several things appear certain:
# Oil prices -- already at record levels -- will continue dramatically rising.
# State-owned oil companies like Mexico's Pemex, Venezuela's PDVSA and Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco may be unable to increase their production enough to meet burgeoning global demand.
# Producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Saudi Arabia in particular, may have even more leverage over the global oil market in the coming years.
# The United States will be ever more reliant on oil imported from countries filled with people who don't like George W. Bush or his policies.
RECORD HIGHS
Charley Maxwell, one of the most respected stock pickers in the energy business, believes the non-OPEC oil producers will hit their peak oil production in the next 5 years. And he applauds Herold's research, saying that no other reputable firm "has been willing to make this type of prediction."
Furthermore, oil producers are running their wells at maximum capacity. Indonesia, a member of OPEC, cannot meet its OPEC quota of 1.4 million barrels per day. In February, Indonesia could produce only 942,000 barrels per day, its lowest level of production in 34 years. And last week, Algeria's energy minister, Chakib Khelil, said that OPEC "does not have the production capacity to increase its quotas."
All of these factors are sending oil prices to record highs. Monday's NYMEX closing price for light sweet crude was $54.95 per barrel. Last week, the Department of Energy issued a report saying that it expects prices to stay near or above $50 per barrel for the rest of this year. That's a big change for an agency that has always been conservative in its price projects.
At about this same time last year, the agency was predicting that oil would cost about $29 per barrel throughout 2005.
salon.com
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TEXT JOCKEY // TJ PHRASER (Fraser Clark) & THE MEDIA EVOLUTION
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The State of the World?
On the Brink of Disaster!
An Authoritative Study
of the Biological Relationships Vital to Maintaining Life
has Found Disturbing Evidence of Man-made Degradation
by Steve Connor
Planet Earth stands on the cusp of disaster and people should no longer take it for granted that their children and grandchildren will survive in the environmentally degraded world of the 21st century.
This is not the doom-laden talk of green activists but the considered opinion of 1,300 leading scientists from 95 countries who this week published a detailed assessment of the state of the world at the start of the new millennium.
The report does not make jolly reading. The academics found that two-thirds of the delicately-balanced ecosystems they studied have suffered badly at the hands of man over the past 50 years.
The dryland regions of the world, which account for 41% of the earth's land surface, have been particularly badly damaged and yet this is where the human population has grown most rapidly during the 1990s.
Slow degradation is one thing but sudden and irreversible decline is another. The report identifies half a dozen potential "tipping points" that could abruptly change things for the worse, with little hope of recovery on a human timescale.
Even if slow and inexorable degradation does not lead to total environmental collapse, the poorest people of the world are still going to suffer the most, according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, which drew on 22 national science academies from around the world.
Walt Reid, the leader of the report's core authors, warned that unless the international community took decisive action the future looked bleak for the next generation. "The bottom line of this assessment is that we are spending earth's natural capital, putting such strain on the natural functions of earth that the ability of the planet's ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted," Dr Reid said.
"At the same time, the assessment shows that the future really is in our hands. We can reverse the degradation of many ecosystem services over the next 50 years, but the changes in policy and practice required are substantial and not currently under way," he said.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0330-04.htm
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I had an idea for a script once. It's basically Jaws except when the guys in the boat are going after Jaws, they look around and there's an even bigger Jaws. The guys have to team up with Jaws to get Bigger Jaws.... I call it... Big Jaws!!!